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Due to the limited power shutdown from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, and the possibility of compulsory shutdown of polyester factories around Hangzhou in September 2022, many polyester factories did not arrange maintenance during the Spring Festival this year, resulting in a high operating rate in the industry.

As of last Friday, the domestic polyester comprehensive operating rate was 89.19%, an increase of 5.27% over the pre-holiday period. With the start of polyester factories one after another, the start of polyester production has risen significantly. In terms of polyester filament, the average start-up of enterprises is 89.1%. Tiansheng, Xinxin, Shenjiu and other installations have restarted, and the overall start-up has risen sharply; in terms of polyester staple fiber, the overall start-up of enterprises is 83.89%. There is no maintenance device for the time being, so the start-up has increased significantly. Polyester PET: The average operating rate of fiber-grade PET factories is 88.79%, a 250,000-ton polyester plant in Hubei has resumed production, the average operating rate of bottle-grade PET factories is around 92.04%, and the operating rate of mainstream manufacturers' installations remains high.

On the other hand, looking at the weaving market, according to data, as of February 17, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 49.94%, an increase of 18.84% from the previous month. At present, most downstream textile and weaving enterprises have resumed work in a centralized manner, and the resumption enterprises have fully invested in the production process. However, the number of new orders is relatively scarce, and due to factors such as the delayed return of migrant workers, most downstream users are only operating at a low level. At present, there are only a small number of orders in the spring and summer in the domestic market, most of which were received more than a few years ago. In the foreign trade, the profit is relatively limited due to the price of raw materials and sea freight. Therefore, the negotiation time between buyers and sellers has been prolonged, and traders' resistance has heated up. The current market is still in the In the stagnation stage, the consumption of finished goods inventory in the factory slowed down.

The supply is high but the demand is declining. The mismatch of upstream and downstream construction has led to a surge in the pressure on upstream raw materials. In addition, after the holiday, polyester production and sales have been sluggish, with an average production and sales of less than 50%, and polyester product inventories have increased rapidly.

It is understood that the inventory of FDY and DTY has been around 30 days, the inventory of POY has been around 25-26 days, and the inventory of polyester short has been around 14 days. The inventory of each product has reached the high point of last year. The downstream polyester yarn inventory also continued to rise, among which the inventory of staple fiber products has been close to a historical high, and the inventory of filament yarn is also continuing to rise, both at the highest level in the same period in history. The weak polyester production and sales also suppressed the enthusiasm of polyester factories to purchase raw materials, resulting in a slow downward transfer of raw material inventories.

Whether the high start-up can be maintained mainly depends on whether the inventory can be digested to the normal level

High start-up and high inventory are the current status of the polyester market. Whether the subsequent high start-up can be maintained mainly depends on whether the inventory can be digested to a normal level. The current level of polyester benefits still has room for price reduction and promotion, and the terminal demand is also recovering, which is difficult to evaluate effectively. If the effect of subsequent price reduction and promotion is good, the high start of polyester construction is expected to be maintained. "From what we have learned so far, the terminal orders are not particularly ideal, and they mainly focus on processing orders before the holiday. Compared with everyone's optimistic expectations before the holiday, it is indeed somewhat unsatisfactory, and further follow-up is still required.

On February 15, an outbreak occurred in Suzhou City. Shengze Town, Wujiang District of the city, as a major textile town in China, was affected to a certain extent. The reporter found from the epidemiological survey that the confirmed cases in Suzhou involved employees of Shenghong Chemical Fiber. In this regard, industry insiders believe that the pressure of epidemic prevention and control on local enterprises will increase, and active epidemic prevention measures, including employee home observation and nucleic acid testing, will have a certain impact on the start of business, but the impact is expected to be short-term.

"Judging from the current information, the Suzhou area has been affected by the epidemic, and there is indeed some inconvenience in logistics, which has affected the downstream recovery progress to a certain extent. At least from the perspective of the burden of polyester factories, it has not been greatly affected." Zhu Lihang said that because the terminal is still in the process of recovery, the specific impact is not judged for the time being. However, the current situation in Suzhou is still under control, and there will not be much disruption to the operation of the company.

The next half month is very critical. Can the market start in this move?

However, the market was obviously weak in the follow-up. Zhongda Market officially opened on the 10th, but the rework of cloth banks and weaving factories was slow. The epidemic in Guangxi had an impact on the return of workers in some Zhangcha weaving factories. Overall, the weaving factory basically resumed production after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month. However, since the opening of Zhongda Market, the daily flow of people has not been high, and the market performance has been rather dull. Some cloth factories have not recruited all workers, and the operating rate is not high. Some cloth banks said that the market has already started to boom in the same period last year, but there is no sign of starting this year until the 15th, and the "gold three silver four" may be cool. At present, the overall quotations in the market are chaotic. After the year, the quotations of raw materials will rise by more than 500 yuan/ton, and most of the grey cloths will rise by 0.2-0.4 yuan/m. However, it is difficult for end customers to accept them, and the actual transactions are more profitable. At present, it is still the pre-orders received before the holiday that have started to ship. It is expected that the proofing list for spring and summer will be issued to a certain extent, but everyone's mentality has gradually become more cautious and pessimistic. The market's confidence in the market outlook has gradually weakened. Recently, the price of raw materials has generally dropped by 100-300 yuan / ton. In general, the next half month is very critical, whether the market can start in one fell swoop.

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Taixing Hongyang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has consistently adhered to the "excellent quality, customer first, quality service, adhere to the contract," the purpose, with high-quality products, good reputation, selling the country. Wholeheartedly with the domestic business win-win cooperation and common development!